Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Is anyone here planning on attending Netroots Nation in Austin next month? I wasn’t able to attend Yearly Kos in 2006 or 2007, but I’ll be there this year. In fact, I’ll be joining SSP blogfather DavidNYC, MyDD’s Jonathan Singer, and Brownsox & Markos of Daily Kos for a panel discussion on this year’s House and Senate races. Details are available here. It should be fun!

If you find yourself in Austin next month, be sure to say hello!

58 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  1. I’m saving up for inauguration. But hopefully next year!

    I’ve been really impressed lately by Bob Lord

    http://www.lord2008.com/

    He is a fantastic candidate and is running against a horrible, horrible Republican.  

  2. But the summer primaries will be heatig up. I’m looking foward to finding out who Nancy Boyda will beat in November. I also await the outcomes in AK-AL, NY-13, NY-26 and MO-09. Here in San Francisco we will have four vacant seats for Board of Supervisors in November and it is shaping up as a battle royale.

  3. Depends on 1) How my college democrats feel in regards to going (I’ve been pushing them, but cash is an issue) and 2) If whichever campaign I am signed on to decides to make the effort to go to it. Both potential campaigns went to the state convention in Austin earlier this year.

    I want to, I really, really do.

  4. This Massachusetts College kid isn’t gonna be anywhere near Austin.  You guys need to come to Boston, or for even more fun, somewhere neat there that no one can pronounce, like Worcester or Gloucester.  

    As for the races I’m watching, I’ve got a whole list of house and senate races I’d like to see become competetive.

    Florida 8 is one that I think we can take, especially if Stuart is the nominee again.  

    I think Russ Warner and Julie Bornstein are looking good out in Califronia.  

    Bill’ O’Neill, Vic Wulsin and Jane Kitakides in Ohio.  

    Montagano and Ackerson in Indiana

    and a lot of races in Illinois including Morganthaler, Harper, Abboud and Callahan.

    there are a lot more too.  I’ll have to do a diary about them when I get the time.  

  6. Suggestion for open thread, Democratic incumbents most likely to lose.  Are there any races where Democratic incumbents look vulnerable?

    Or another open thread, sleeper races.  People were surprised by Carol Shea Porter and Nancy Boyda winning.  What will be the surprise race(s) that shock the pundits?

  7. MN-03 (Ashwin Madia – my sleeper pick), WA-08 (Darcy Burner), NY-13 (Vito Fosella open seat), AK-AL (Berkowitz), AK-Sen (Begich)

  8. MO-09, MN-03, ID-01

    I am also interested in seeing Tim Walz in the MN-01 win re-election to a second term big and in seeing Nancy Boyda re-elected.

    My sleeper pick is Judy Baker MO-09.

  9. Definitely check out this panel. Hell, with my love of obscure House races, I wish I was ON the panel!!

    🙂

    As for sleeper races…I really like TX-10 and MN-03 as races to watch. Also, I don’t know if this is a “sleeper”, but watch out for Colorado 04. Markey might benefit from a better-than-standard Democratic year in Colorado, and she may very well take Marilyn Musgrave out.

    Races I am worried about on our side–I am VERY worried about Carol Shea-Porter. I don’t see 2008 being as good for Democrats in NH as 2006 was.

  10. One race that is not talked about much that is already heating up is PA-11 in the contest of Congressman Kanjorski (D-PA) and Mayor Barletta (R-PA). TV ads for the general are already starting to run with Kanjorski just placing new TV ads and Barletta starting to create them. Very early for general election ads in a Congressional race.

    Kanjorski did no one any favors by going around saying the Democrats were misleading the people about Iraq in the 2006 election in order to win.

    Right now I would say the race is likely Dem, but has the potential to heat up and gives us GOP one of our rare chances of putting a Democratic incumbent held seat who wasnt elected in 2006 in play.

  11. I’d like to hear more about some of the IL races. What’s going on in IL-13? I’d like to see how the Harper v. Biggert race is shaping up. Its a fast growing area in Illinois plus relatively affluent, makes me think Obama could extend some coattails.

    I’d like to hear more about IL-11 as well. Some other stuff that would be nice is MN-01, IN-GOV, and NC-GOV.  

    1. Nick Lampson in TX-22, Mahoney in FL-16, Chris Carney and, surprisingly, Paul Kanjorski in PA-11.  Also the open seat in AL-05.  I don’t think Jerry McNerney is in trouble in CA-11, and Nancy Boyda is probably ok.  

      Sleeper races:  Maybe Mary Bono-Mack in CA-45?  Dana Rohrabacher in CA-46?  (California dreamin’) and how about seats in KS and NE?  The South Florida 3 (FL-18, 21, 1and 25)?  Marilyn Musgrave in C)-04 is in real trouble, bbut that’s on everyone’s radar.  Sam Graves in MO-06?

      Most of these may be wishful thinking.  A real longshot to lose is Todd Tiahrt in KS-04.

    2. While all the attention in Missouri is on Kay Barnes in the MO-6, I have a feeling that Judy Baker in the MO-9 has an even better chance of winning a Missouri red seat and has been quietly building up an impressive campaign in terms of fundraising, grassroots support and field operations.

      Judy Baker was 4th nationally among house candidates in fundrasing on ActBlue last week (an amazing haul for a candidate in a four way primary with a former speaker of the state house and one other high profile former rep).

      Judy Baker is likely to be this year’s Carol Shea Porter, imho.  

    4. Where I think we are in any serious danger are:

      TX-22 – Lampson – This is the only seat that I think repubs have greater than a 50/50 shot at winning.  

      PA-10 – Carney

      FL-16 – Mahoney

      LA-06 – Cazayoux – I only put this race on the list because Jackson may run as an independent.  If he stays out we’ll win handily.

      KS-02 – Boyda – I’m much more optimistic about this one after seeing the latest poll.  Boyda should be fine.

      GA-08 – Marshall – I have no idea where this race stand.  Republicans thought they had a top-tier candidate in Goddard but his fundraising numbers are poor and Marshall is good at winning close races.  I’m sure we’ll be ok here.

      I’d put our range of Dem-held seats lost at about 2-5 with the lower end being more likely.  I have a feeling that as we get closer to election day the repubs will adandon nearly all their dem targets and focus on defending their own seats.

    5. Maybe Lampson beacuse it is such a Republican district but with the DCCC’s help I think he will pull it out. I think he is the only one in serious danger although there are some that might be.

      My sleeper pick is Steve Sarvi in MN-02. He’s got the perfect profile for the district and the district is trending Democratic fast. The right kind of Democrat (like Amy Klobuchar who won the district by 10 points) can win and Kline has a horrible, extreme record. If Sarvi get’s enough money to get his name out and get Kline’s record out then he can win the upset victory.

  14. DSCC – $38,530,000

    NRSC – $21,560,000

    ———————————-

    DCCC – $47,174,105

    NRCC – $6,654,801

    ———————————-

    DNC – $3,965,886

    RNC – $53,508,001

    ———————————-

    Sidenotes:

    -DSCC’s COH advantage over NRSC slipped a little, probably an effect from pushing Merkley up in the senate primary.

    -DCCC’s COH advantage went up almost 2 million $ over May fundraising

    -RNC added about 13 million to their COH as the DNC dropped.  Nothing new there.  

    1. and yes, I am involved in the county democratic party.

      Here’s the deal. Burgess is no good, but his opponent, Ken Leach, is a crazy old activist guy who will not win (nor should he really). However, the previous opponents fielded against Burgess, Tim Barnwell, Lico Reyes, and whoever we ran in 2002 were no better. In fact it could be said our opposition has gotten crazier through the years.

      2002 Burgess gets over 70%.

      2004 Burgess gets 66%

      2006 Burgess gets 60%

      I believe that even though Leach is so bad, I think Burgess’ margin will continue to slip and he will have his closest election yet.

      If you really want to help in the area, everything in the southern half of Tarrant county is in play (state senate 10 and state house seats 97 and 96), there are 3 good state house races in Dallas (101, 102, and 112), and in Denton we’re going for the constable race on the northern end of the county. THe effort is going there, not in the congressional races this year.

  15. Beyond the presidential race, these are the 20 races I am most focused on (no particular order):

    1. AK-SEN

    2. CO-04

    3. NY-13

    4. New York State Senate

    6. CA-04

    7. Texas State House

    8. MI-07

    9. NY-26

    10. NY-29

    11. WA-08

    12. LA-04

    13. NC-SEN

    14. CO-SEN

    15. NM-01

    16. MS-SEN B

    17. MI-09

    18. MO-06

    19. AK-AL

    20. NV-03

  16. Jon Gard is off to a very unimpressive start in his re-match with Steven Kagen.  Recently, Gard was quoted in print parroting those factually false GOP talking points//internet rumors that the Chinese have an oil rig just off America’s shore and that is why John McCain’s energy policy is so attractive to Jon Gard.  Now articles are appearing noting Gard quoted from those incompetent false GOP talking points.  Oh for an original thought!  

    I am optimistic Kagen will expand his slight victory margin in 2008.  The one wild card in CD-8 is the Fox River Valley is perceived as the battleground (with addition of LaCross vicinity which is West along the Minn. border)  in the Presidential election which means saturation attention from both parties.  Whichever of the Presidential candidates wins the Fox River Valley may determine who wins in the area.  

    But this turf also features a key state Assembly race with a GOP incumbent retiring following a tough 06 victory over a Dem. who never stopped campaigning for the seat after her narrow loss in 2006(Penny Schaber).  So the Dems. are ascendant in Outagamie County and on offense.  The GOP strategy of relying on historical voting patterns is about to blow up in their faces.  Again.  

  17. Again, I am working as an intern on the campaign, but the more that I learn about Dana Rohrabacher, the more I remember why I decided to become a Democrat. He is everything that is wrong with the current Republican party. I am not good at quoting text and the like, but I can post a video. I hope that’s allowed. Please, if you have some extra cash lying around, send it to Debbie Cook, she has a real chance to take down this nutjob, but she needs money, just like all the candidates do. Watch, and be angry.

    1. MN-01 started out more or less as a 3rd priority in Minnesota, a race ranked below MN-02 and MN-06, which were both races we lost handily in the end.  I’ll be the first to admit that I was caught off-guard on MN-01 until the very end of the 2006 cycle.  

      This was also one of those races republicans assumed they’d win back in 2008.  So much for that.

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